Verónica Hoyo, Ph.D.

vhoyo@ucsd.edu

University of California, San Diego

Country: United States (California)

Research Interests

Political Parties and Interest Groups

Elections, Election Administration, and Voting Behavior

Public Opinion

European Politics

Latin American And Caribbean Politics

Radical Political Parties

Outsider Politics

Anti-establishment Parties

Comparative Party Systems

Countries of Interest

France

Mexico

United Kingdom

Germany

Italy

Publications:

Journal Articles:

(2017) México 2016: El declive de la Confianza Institutional/Mexico 2016: The Decline of Institutional Trust., Revista de Ciencia Politica

ABSTRACT Mexico finished 2016 in worse shape than it started: not only did national indicators worsen, mainly in terms of violence and social unrest, but the country also faced an increasingly hostile international climate characterized by a volatile economy with low oil prices, a depreciating peso, and the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections. Consequently, the year ended with presidential approval ratings at an all-time low, widespread and unchecked corruption, and increasing concerns about the government's legitimacy and the future of democracy in Mexico. El balance del 2016 para México es de saldo negativo: no solo las condiciones nacionales de violencia y descontento social siguieron empeorando sino que una coyuntura internacional particular —caracterizada por una situación económica volátil con el precio del petróleo y el valor del peso por los suelos y unas elecciones presidenciales norteamericanas que culminaron con Donald Trump como ganador— hicieron que el año registrara cifras sin precedentes de impopularidad presidencial, corrupción generalizada y falta de legitimidad en todos los niveles de gobierno y en la democracia misma.

(2015) “The Utility of Unpacking Survey Bias in Multiparty Elections: Mexican Polling Firms in the 2006 and 2012 Presidential Elections, International Journal of Public Opinion Research

Abstract This article proposes a more nuanced method to assess the accuracy of preelection polls in competitive multiparty elections. Relying on data from the 2006 and 2012 presidential campaigns in Mexico, we illustrate some shortcomings of commonly used statistics to assess survey bias when applied to multiparty elections. We propose the use of a Kalman filter-based method that uses all available information throughout an electoral campaign to determine the systematic error in the estimates produced for each candidate by all polling firms. We show that clearly distinguishing between sampling and systematic biases is a requirement for a robust evaluation of polling firm performance, and that house effects need not be unidirectional within a firm’s estimates or across firms.

Book Chapters:

(2018) Electoral Systems in Context: France, The Oxford Handbook of Electoral Systems Oxford University Press

Overall, elections in France take place in a two-round system (with the exception of the European elections), and although each different electoral arena has its own particular procedures, most promote majoritarian principles. This chapter analyzes the electoral system of the French Fifth Republic by focusing on the operation of these rules in the larger political context: including the interaction between the rules, the party system, and the main political actors that compete in them. It shows that the two-round majoritarian system has proven remarkably stable and has managed to survive both internal (a quick detour to proportional representation in 1986) and external challenges (rise of new parties, EU common rules on proportional representation).

Media Appearances:

Blog Posts:

(2017) The Monkey Cage - Washington Post

French Presidential elections

(2017) The Monkey Cage - Washington Post

French legislative Elections