Jennifer Spindel, Ph.D.

jspindel@ou.edu

University of Oklahoma

City: Hanover, New Hampshire

Country: United States

Research Interests

Arms Transfers

Foreign Policy

Nuclear Weapons

Specific Areas of Interest

Arms Transfers

International Security

US Foreign Policy

Diplomacy

Publications:

Journal Articles:

(2018) Divided Priorities: Why and When Allies Differ Over Military Intervention, Security Studies

Tags: Military Intervention, Foreign Policy

Scholars have vigorously debated whether adversaries carefully scrutinize if states have in the past demonstrated toughness and whether adversaries base present and future crisis-bargaining behavior on this record. If they do—as a central strain of deterrence theory, and its contemporary defenders, maintain—hard-line policies, including limited military interventions, can bolster deterrence. We know much less about a second audience presumably attentive to demonstrations of resolve: allies. A common view, derived from the same logic and which we call Hawkish Reassurance Theory, suggests that states should support and find reassuring their allies’ faraway military interventions. In contrast, we argue that such interventions call into doubt the intervener’s will and capacity to fulfill its core alliance commitments, undermine the credibility of the alliance, and threaten allies’ security in both the short and long run. Allies thus ultimately oppose powerful partners’ hawkish postures in distant conflicts, and they may even consequently explore routes to security beyond the alliance. To assess this argument, we examine the varied stances leading US allies took from the start of the US intervention in Vietnam through its end. Allied behavior was largely consistent with our expectations. We conclude that, if one reason to deploy force is to signal to allies that you will come to their aid when they call, states should not bother.

Media Appearances:

Radio Appearances:

(2018) NPR - Morning Edition

Steve Inskeep talks to Jennifer Spindel, an expert in international arms transfers, about President Trump saying he won't cancel a weapons deal with Saudi Arabia because it would cost American jobs.

Newspaper Quotes:

(2018) Globe and Mail (Canada)

Quoted in article about the international security consequences of the Mattis departure and the general unpredictability of the Trump administration

(2018) USA Today

Quoted in article: "US weapons sales a flashpoint as President Trump presses Saudi Arabia over missing journalist"

Blog Posts:

(2019) Washington Post, Monkey Cage

Explainer on what Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 air missile defense system means for Turkish-NATO and Turkish-US relations.

(2019) Washington Post, Monkey Cage

Explainer on US arms sales in light of Pres. Trump's decision to invoke an "emergency" so that he can sell arms to Saudi Arabia.